Curse

Lystra · Dec 23, 2008, 04:34 AM // 04:34

I'm sure many people are wondering just how many Mini Polar Bears there are out there and how many were obtained respectively, during 2007 and 2008. I'm also sure that in order to more accurately discern the drop rate, we need more accurate statistics.

I would like to request ppl that have gotten polar bears, either dropped form the end chest or bought from other players, post a screenshot of their Polar Bear showing the occupied inventory slot, and any other relavent information such as:

1) Number of completed runs(whether you got a MPB or not!-it's still useful information)
2) The Quest completed(If purchased, thats fine too)
3) The Year it was obtained
4) If you will dedicate or sell your MPB

Please refrain from posting your opinions regarding drop rates and such until we can get some real figures and encourage anyone you know with a polar bear to submit a post here or help them to do so if you have an account.

In addition, keep in mind we should try to keep the count as accurate as possible and lets all be honest and not cheat the overall total by using a friend's MPB.

Edit-Many people are posting that this is useless in determining any accuracy per the drop rate. While I wholeheartedly agree that it is useless in determining a perfectly accurate drop rate, I do think that it will give people more useful data in guessing a more accurate drop rate. There is simply too much speculation in the community as to what the drop rate is and if enough data is collected, with or without a MPB included in the numbers, we can at least be more accurate in our guestimates. Worst case scerario...people will at least have an idea of how many runs they might need to complete before getting lucky and that alone would make this thread useful to the masses.

Please refrain from expressing your many negative individual opinions regarding the usefulness of of collected data. It's already been done to death and 1 more comment isn't gonna dissuade the MPB farmers from MPB farming some more.

Collected Statistics
Confirmed Bears(Screenshot) 12
Confirmed Bears(No Screeny) 3
Overall Runs(in this Thread) 29401

Data included up to post#286. If you need update your run count or post screenshot, please do so in a new reply. I have the data organized per user and can simply update it on my end but unless it is post#286 or later, the information will not be included in my spreadsheet.

Note I've excluded dubvious second hand reports or runs and and MPB drop's.

Lystra · Dec 23, 2008, 04:39 AM // 04:39

1) 337 Runs
2) The Strength of Snow
3) 2008
4) Dedicating+Keeping(If I get another, I'll be selling)

Marverick · Dec 23, 2008, 04:40 AM // 04:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lystra

1) 337 Runs
2) The Strength of Snow
3) 2008
4) Dedicating+Keeping(If I get another, I'll be selling)

You seriously counted (and did) that many runs?

Lady Ana Stacia · Dec 23, 2008, 04:43 AM // 04:43

15-20 runs (1st run on Para)
Strength of Snow
2008
Not selling.........

Lystra · Dec 23, 2008, 04:49 AM // 04:49

I just counted my drops and divided by 5 to determine completed runs. way easier than counting each run as i went along

byteme! · Dec 23, 2008, 04:50 AM // 04:50

If I found 1 I wouldn't care to tell anyone. I don't see any point. I also don't see the point in this thread. It's gonna take forever to get any adequate amount of data to determine an "estimated" drop rate. By the time you get a conclusion, (which isn't going to happen) Wintersday will be over. Keep in mind there are people like myself who couldn't be bothered to post here if we ever found one and there are also others who don't visit this forum as well. Whatever numbers you manage to gather are just that, a bunch of numbers and nothing more.

To me this is just a thread for phishing. Phishing out to see who the owners are and nothing more.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lystra

I believe in accuracy and it seems others do as well.

This thread will give you a better guess or estimation at the drop rate. You're looking for accuracy. Ain't gonna happen.

You're only including the people who GOT a mini polar bear and excluding everyone else who has tried. We're talking huge #'s here, something you are not likely to gather from this thread alone.

Say for example there were 10,000 people right this very second farming for the mini. 1 of them gets the bear and posts here and mentions he tried 50 times. You've excluded 9,999 people and their numbers which do drastically change whatever statistics you're trying to compile.

So to sum this all up. This thread is useless. It will give false data and give people false impressions of there chances of obtaining a mini. The mini polar bear is extremely rare and we may as well leave it at that.

Lystra · Dec 23, 2008, 05:05 AM // 05:05

Point taken...especially regarding phishing.

Im trying to get numbers from people who do a significant number of runs though as those number will be the most relavent. I myself will be doing alot of.....this...most of the event and while you are definately correct regarding its usefulness this event, it may be more useful next year(if anyone is even playing gw then

)

If this thread does anything useful, it might at least help determine a more accurate selling price if people getting bears are ok with reporting it.

Anyhow, if the thread dies, it dies. No one has to post. If your forum account has information relavent to you gw account, i would encourage you not to post if you are concerned about phishing.

That being said, post if you are a serious polar bear farmer and contribute to the effort. Its the people who do ALOT of runs whose data will prove useful if at all.

Sharkman · Dec 23, 2008, 05:13 AM // 05:13

Low drop rate+low percentage of players reporting=bad data.

There is no way you'll be able to come up with a reliable figure, unless you could get stats from a majority of the population. And you are ONLY asking for results from people who have had one drop? Person A could have completed SoS 500 times with no results while Person B received one after 10 runs. It is all probability and a very low one at that.

WhiteWasabi · Dec 23, 2008, 05:20 AM // 05:20

If I had a polar bear I would keep it quiet and sell it in 3-6 months for triple the going rate.

I did about 400 runs and 0 polar bears. The one I did get I had to buy for a MOUNTAIN of ectos

Lystra · Dec 23, 2008, 05:36 AM // 05:36

Ok, after this post, I hope I can stop adding fuel to the fire.

I do not expect the results of said postings to be 100% accurate as to determining the drop rate of a polar bear. What it might do at the very least is give a player the confidence that if they did enough runs, would they or not get a polar bear. Has anyone either as a group effort or a single effort, ever done over 1000 runs to determine anything? I think not. Furthermore, I believe that if anyone had the intention of doing that many runs, they would most certainly be rewarded for their efforts.

Anet isn't gonna help and there is a big difference between 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, and 1:100,000.

Let's get one thing straight. No one know how many people are doing the run at any given time. Even if any calculation is determined by farmers posting their results, the end result will be something more accurate than just pure guessing, especially if someone does over 1000 runs and doesn't get a polar bear.

To that claim, I would propose we post our results. If a guild has put together any such study using its alliance and members as participants, that would most certainly help.

Even massive numbers of total runs with no results would be helpful if reported.

If you have relavent information, please post...otherwise, there is no need to post anything and this will just die, at which point, it was in at the very least an attempt to get the gw community together to accomplish something other than griping, no matter how insignificant some of you think it is.

Wish Swiftdeath · Dec 23, 2008, 05:57 AM // 05:57

283 runs approximately and no bear

.

Bored as hell, after a couple hours started afking it while enjoying my new itouch...

Lystra · Dec 23, 2008, 06:25 AM // 06:25

Just got some info from a reliable source.

4 ppl 800 runs=no bears

ty for the info(you know who you are)

pumpkin pie · Dec 23, 2008, 06:26 AM // 06:26

1 run no bear

1 wintersgreen
2 fruitcake
2 shards

woot woot go me

Lystra · Dec 23, 2008, 06:26 AM // 06:26

Regarding my run quantity.....8 accounts, run to the end, get shards and chest once its done. No fighting. I run them in pairs.

Average run time 2.5m including the end chest. 24 runs/hr approximately.

I assure you I had time to not only sleep, but also to bath,get work done, and even take my mom out to dinner at a nice restaurant Friday night.

Being that it was a weekend, things worked out pretty well. I'll be trying to bear#2 and keep updating my stats as I go along. Good luck to the rest of you!

Xslash · Dec 23, 2008, 06:40 AM // 06:40

ranger -- ur thing on running sos is completely wrong

1. 8 minutes -- what are you noob? cupcake eveyr run, essence every run (jk about essence)
2. hahaha at taking the reward -- abandon and fruitcake to rift warden .
3. multiple accounts -- run 2 at a time, hide at door

personally,
i have 4 accounts, running 2 and 2..first 2 complete at 8 minutes afk.
second 2 , run then fight, for 6 minute runs, starting 2 minutes after the first - totally 8 minutes
thats 4 runs in 2 minutes.

4. open chest, dont pick up those drops, go straight for candy cane shards
the other ones are unclaimed

that turn around is like 2.5 minutes/run buddy

even less if u have 8 accounts.

so 8 accounts.. 2 minutes per run ---
30 runs an hour --

11 hours outa 56 hours. leaves u:
30 hours of sleep over 2 days
10 hours to take a couple baths
5 hours to post and laugh at this rangerenemein dude or w/e who thinks that just because it takes him 8 minutes is how long a run takes.

btw - spelling mistakse were juts fro you

oh and just so you dont say something like

blah blah blah --8 accounts? no life
or blah blah blah -- cant play that much, have a job
or qq about anythign else

..if you have a job -- its now what? 20$ for platnium edition (proph+eotn)
whats that 2-4 hours of work for 7 accounts?
lets say 80 hour work week.
300 days a year.
2-4 hours gonna kill you?

11 hours total outa 56 = 20% of the day
4.8 hours a day buddy
even you know you play more than that

and then after that --
u'll qq about having kids and cant play

my one response-- hasnt stopped you from failing b4 has it?

therangereminem · Dec 23, 2008, 06:59 AM // 06:59

2 min run not happening

i can do 4 min run thats wuth cupcake , and fighting the end

Xslash · Dec 23, 2008, 07:01 AM // 07:01

not a 2 minute run.

2 minutes per chest

we can use your arbitray 8 minute run logic.

you run two accounts side by side and go back and forth to turn.
thats already 4 minute runs.

now do that multiple times instead of fighting.

on a side note, 4 minutes is just a "tad" faster than your originally stated 8 minute around, isnt it.

also, the next thing u'll qq about is that it doesnt always take 8 minutes for an afk run to finish. and that sometimes it takes up to 12 minutes.

well..nobody ever said we were running at maxmimum efficiency.
lets say -- and hopefully you wont argue this -- that easily possible to run 2 accounts simutainously.

that would mean 2 characters reach door at 2 minutes, or 1 minute each.
if you wanted to run at maximum efficiency with assumption of 12 minute runs

get 12 accounts, run each every 2 minutes, thats 2 chests every two minutes.

and downtime is minimal at maximum efficiency.

so at maximum efficency, and accounts equal to the amount of time it takes to finish a run gives you 1 minute/chest.

now, if you're pro
3 accounts at once would give you 40 second/chest
4 accounts = 30second/chest -- though this would mean you have 24 accounts

AND lastly

you'll secretly qq about why you are so bad.

then qq to some moderator about how thats a personal attack
and even they are so sick of hearing you're qq
they just knuckle under and delete em.

KZaske · Dec 23, 2008, 07:47 AM // 07:47

I have only done about 60 runs so far, and have posted some drop info on the real (and offical) wiki. No mini has been reported by anyone there.

RTSFirebat · Dec 23, 2008, 07:56 AM // 07:56

This polar Bear business is getting daft now. I remember the good old days when people simply just ENJOYED Wintersday without obsessing over a bunch of Pixels shaped like a Polar Bear. The sad thing is there are people out there who will do nothing else for the next week or so but do the Snowman Lair quests over and over again.

A11Eur0 · Dec 23, 2008, 08:00 AM // 08:00

Well the quest itself is a good farm whether you get a polar bear or not...just that it has that extra special incentive to do it as well. I get about the same amount of goodies doing the quest as I do vaettir bombing, without the frustration of a nerfed SF to bring my run down. And if those gold letters pop out...hell i won't need to do any farming ever again.